Who Will Win Next Year’s Presidential Election In Nigeria?

 

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC presidential candidate)

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP presidential Candidate)

Mr. Peter Obi (Labour Party presidential candidate).

The whole country is agog with the noise of the next year’s 2023 general elections. There are so many candidates and many political parties, yet only one political party and one candidate will eventually be declared winner after the general elections.

To narrow the list down, let’s take a look the three leading political parties. The leading political parties are:

·         All Progressives People’s Congress (APC)

·         People Democratic Party (PDP)

·         Labour Party (LP).

APC is unarguably the strongest party in Nigeria right now. Apart from the fact that it is the ruling party in the country presently, it is the party with the largest membership in the country. It has more governors, senators, house of reps members, state law makers and local government chairmen.

This party’s candidate for next year’s election is the former Lagos State governor; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Tinubu is not a newbie in Nigerian politics; he has been in active politics since 1991 when he served as a senator representing Oyo state. He became the governor of Lagos State in 1999 and was there till 2007 when he handed power over to the current Minister of works and housing; Mr. Raji Babatunde Fashola. Tinubu was the one who paved the political way for Fashola and the rest of the comrades who are doing well politically in Nigeria today.

Tinubu’s influence in Lagos and the whole of South Western part of Nigeria is unrivalled. Many of his (political) disciples have become leaders in their states and even at the national level. Most of his immediate family members are either directly holding important political positions or there are in key positions within Lagos. His wife is a senator who has been representing her district for many years.

He was the brain behind the formation of the APC and according to him, it was him who made President Buhari the president in 2015 even when the latter wanted to give up. One could keep stating the extent of his power without exhausting the list.

The PDP had chosen the former Vice President, Alhaji Abubakar Atiku as its flag bearer in a very controversial primary election that was held few months ago.  This selection is contrary to the party’s rotational ideology and this is causing a lot of friction within the party. Alhaji Atiku is a strong politician in his own right and it is really not surprising that the party picked him ahead of other contenders like Bukola Saraki and the others who contested against him in the primaries. He is a rich man who has large shares in Intels, a computer manufacturing company based in the United States and he has a private university in his home state; Adamawa.

Atiku is a big name in the northern part of Nigeria and he will undoubtedly get many votes from there. However, the northern votes will be shared between him and Tinubu because the latter has the support of many bigwigs in the north, including the current president and some northern notable personalities.

 

The Labour Party, until recently was not a party to reckon with in Nigeria. Until this year, the party has not large membership and they seldom win any election at the national level. Their notable achievement was winning Ondo State gubernatorial election several years ago with Olusegun Mimiko. However, this victory did not last long as the erstwhile governor dumped the party and joined the PDP to support former president Goodluck Jonathan in his second term bid in 2015. Jonathan was defeated by Buhari and Mimiko lost with him, abruptly ending his political career by backing the wrong horse.

When Mr. Peter Obi observed that PDP was not going to nominate him as the flag bearer in the coming election, he dumped PDP and declared his love for Labour Party. The party welcomed him and unanimously made him their presidential candidate. Mr. Peter Obi was former governor of Anambra State and a real talker. He has a large gathering on social media, especially on Twitter. Many people follow him because people are already tired of the regimes led by both PDP and APC which have proved to be disastrous over the years. So it is this yearning for fresh air that made a lot of young folks who want a better Nigeria to give him their wholehearted support. Mr. Obi while serving as a governor in his state was said to have done extremely well by his supporters. It was also rumoured that he left his state richer than he met it by leaving some huge amounts and investments in the name of the state.

 

Among Tinubu, Atiku And Peter Obi, Who Will Win The Next Election?

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu will most likely win the next presidential election. Tinubu has raised leaders over time who are now leaders and these leaders are currently holding many positions both in politics and in their personal lives. Many of these leaders have large following and will most likely canvass votes for him in the coming election.

Also, of the three leading candidates, Tinubu has done his grass root work more than the other two contenders. Atiku has been on the political scene for long yet he doesn’t really have a strong home base. His power in the north is not as strong as Tinubu’s powers in the west. Peter Obi has no home base to even talk about apart from his social media following which will make little or no difference in the coming election. His social media followers are not enough to give him enough votes that will lead him to victory next year. Nigeria’s election has never been won on social media and it doesn’t look as if it is going to happen next year. The average uneducated Nigerians still has the power over the educated view and they will no doubt use the power of their number again next year I electing the next president.

Long before even the primary elections began, Tinubu has been going round the north to seek support from people that matter in the north and many of them have promised him their support already. So he may even get more votes in the north than the northern man, Atiku. Peter Obi is not yet accepted in his home. The council of Kings and elders in the east are yet to endorse his candidacy and even many easterners are not in support of his candidacy, so he doesn’t really pose a threat to Tinubu’s emergence.

Is Tinubu Right For Presidency? Find out in the next post!